Six days before the first round at Augusta National, two players hold the centre of the conversation. One is the defending champion. The other is the consensus betting favourite. Both arrive at the Masters in form that does not match their reputations, and the contrast between their respective situations is the most interesting subplot of the build-up.
Here is the case for and against each of them.
The case for Scottie Scheffler
The world number one has been the most consistent player on the planet for nearly two seasons. He arrives at Augusta as a +500 favourite, with two green jackets already to his name, both earned by playing the kind of patient, mistake-free golf that the course rewards more than any other major venue.
Scheffler’s iron play remains the best in the field. His statistics for proximity to the hole inside 175 yards have led the Tour for three seasons running. His short game, long the underrated part of his game, has tightened up significantly over the past year, and his putting — once a weakness — is now at least average and sometimes much better.
History also supports him. Scheffler has been in the top ten in four of his last five Masters starts, won twice, and missed only one cut as a fully exempt member of the field. The course suits him in every way: he hits the ball high, he draws it on demand, and he has the kind of unflappable temperament that Augusta rewards more than any other Sunday in golf.
The case against Scottie Scheffler
He hasn’t been himself for three weeks. Two finishes outside the top 20, including a missed cut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open after barely making the weekend at Bay Hill. The driving has been off — for Scheffler, off means a few shots wide of his usual world-class baseline — and the iron play has not produced the usual barrage of birdie chances.
Scheffler’s bad weeks tend to look like decent weeks for normal Tour pros, so it’s worth keeping perspective. But he has admitted in his recent press conferences that he has been working on a few specific things in his swing, which is always a slightly worrying sign in the week before a major. The Masters tends to reward players who arrive with their swing already where they want it, not players who are mid-fix.
The case for Rory McIlroy
McIlroy comes to Augusta with the freedom of a man who has finally answered the question that defined his career for eleven years. The 2025 Masters playoff win wasn’t just a major. It was a release of pressure that even the most cynical observers could see in the way he played the back nine on that Sunday. Everything from his body language to his post-round interviews suggests a different player.
His ball-striking, when fit, remains as good as anyone’s. His putting on the firm, fast greens at Augusta has improved markedly since 2024. And he arrives with the kind of veteran knowledge of the course that took him a decade to acquire — every line, every angle, every wrong miss to avoid.
If he wins this week, McIlroy becomes only the fourth player to win back-to-back Masters titles, joining Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger Woods. That kind of company has a way of motivating a player who has now started to think about his historical legacy.
The case against Rory McIlroy
His back. McIlroy withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational citing back spasms and has not played a competitive round since. Even a mild back issue at Augusta is a serious problem, because the elevation changes alone make the course one of the more physically demanding majors. Rory has historically managed his body well, but he has also had moments where a tweak ahead of a major has cost him a serious chance.
There’s also the question of how much the Masters playoff win drained him emotionally. Several past champions have spoken about the year after their first green jacket being a strange one — a victory lap that doesn’t always produce a victory. McIlroy is too talented to have that kind of dropoff for a full year, but the timing of his absence from the Players Championship and the recent pre-Masters events is at least a small concern.
The honest reading
If both players arrive on Thursday with their bodies and swings in their typical form, both are obvious favourites and the tournament becomes a coin toss between them and a small group of challengers. If Scheffler has fixed whatever was off the past three weeks, he is the pick. If McIlroy is fit and his back holds up across four rounds in the Augusta hills, the defence is real.
The truth is that this Masters might come down to a question that neither player can fully answer until they tee it up on Thursday morning. Which version of themselves shows up. And which version of the other one shows up at the same time.
That’s exactly the kind of uncertainty that makes Masters week the best week in golf.